Why is this pullback in the markets more significant than any other in the past nine months?  There is a negative divergence which set up the turn in the McClellan oscillator – higher prices, but lower market breadth.  This is exactly the reverse of the positive divergence which preceded the market bottom in March 2009.

It’s been quite a time since my last post.  The real reason is that I was out of the rhythm and beat of the markets since covering a multi-year short bet in March.  I didn’t have the force of character at the time to flip long, at an incredible opportunity cost to my trading account.  The lack of clean pullback from the March 2009 lows has provided very few good entry points.

I have also come to realize the futility in relying on other trader’s calls – most notably Doug Kass’.  I am relying much more on my own insights going forward, with links noted wherever possible to relevant market insights.

The markets are experiencing the second day of pullbacks from multi-month highs.  In particular, the structure of the S&P 500 suggest the possibility of a completed 5-wave series given the near-perfect Fibonacci ratios between successive waves.