China Revisited
August 19, 2009
As expected, the Shanghai Composite index encountered pocket resistance on the weekly chart. Despite major news outlets decrying the 20% drop as the beginning of a bear market for China, it is actually a healthy pullback after a total gain of 109% from the November lows. This pullback can be considered the handle of larger cup & handle formation – this setup was also encountered in the March 2009 lows.
Examining the daily chart, it appears that 2,750 will be a very crucial technical level to establish itself as a short-term floor. This is where pocket support should come into play on the weekly time frame, and it a test of the rising trend line from the 2009 January – March spike lows. It is also a 50% Fibonacci retrace of the advance from the March low.
Thanks Voo for two day warning. Nice move down till 8/21 globex we have higher lows in cl, ec, then before fdax session starts bonds put in higher low and per previous post intermarket lines up for buy. How about today. three times 330 est, 7 am est and 11 am est, all three time areas gave respectifully, sell buy and sell, in each case yields, cl and ec were giving set up for these entries. Now to other tools, as intermarket is at best a screen, since football season is upon us. The blockers are making a move in the same direction as running back so they can get the best yardage out of the play. Conditions change intermarket changes, trade the trend when your herd all have the same idea about conditions. Ps. vix and trin bearish at 11 am sell so that 1035 now important resistance here for the esaccording to intermarket and tools. We will see, hopefully as it occurs and not after the fact. good trading to all gate pps, 1035 in es was test of resistance of globex high
Comment by STEVE GARNER (GATE) — August 24, 2009 @ 9:17 am
Highs/Lows –Resistance/supports. Very nice confidence #s this am 10 est. So how good were they in relation to other markets. Bonds, This ams run back to 1035 es levels was a test of yesderdays highs but at those test we have inverted lower bonds, and crude levels HUMMMM, ec is between am highs yesterda and es high levels of 1035, soooo. waiting till all line up, volume tools not long to wait 1010 est relative to es even ec is now weak, entry maybe 1034, again 1035 is twice touched resistance. OK so how about supports. FDAX trades 2 am est opens, active trading at 3 am. Mentioned in previous post this time frame. so what was going on there, These are late post to illustrate tools,. At that time frame we had a test of previous days lows in FDAX, an inverse example of the 10 am est es test of previous days highs, the FDAX yields, BUND, German Bond, gave higher lows at 230 est this am along with ec and cl AS FDAX was lower and testing previous days lows in FDAX, Yep, es stocks not trading but same formation there as well. Nice $2500 run up in FDAX till 10 am pattern mentioned above. How to identify patterns. Well how about this. longer term screens, 15 , 30, 60 minute goof for visual pattern. Simple alert program in Trade Station or other alert programs. Alerts, when ec cl bonds up es down , 5 minute programs, alerts to screen and tools you are confident in as entries then risk you are willing to take as protection. I am attempting to be as consistent as possible. And as long as our gracious host does not object will post some examples. Rest is up to individual trader if this is of any use. Good trading to all gate
Comment by STEVE GARNER (GATE) — August 25, 2009 @ 7:43 am
1230 est retest of 1035 highs, in this pattern ec and cl were lower than at levels of this am, BUT bonds higher. sooooo, pattern of bonds lower occurs at 1240 for sell in 1034 area. short tern higher lows in trio after 1028 es put in. good trading to all next to watch retest of 1028 level and see where market trio are indicating. good trading gate
Comment by STEVE GARNER (GATE) — August 25, 2009 @ 10:26 am
First Hour, Highs/Lows First hour this am has seen test of globex high and lows and inside of yesterdays range. first test was globex lows,with bonds, cl and ec making lower lows hourly , only slight indication of trin for up move immediately after open from 1020 area. then some higher lows in trio paying attention to highs of globex test and lower cl ec and yields at those points with trin adding bear bias. 1040 est had my attention with trio bias down and volume failures there, that is my , hopefully, high of the day. we will see what we see. good trading to all gate
Comment by STEVE GARNER (GATE) — August 26, 2009 @ 8:00 am
Caution, I post relatively soon, after configuration is registered, but in no way is this a recommendation of current trade, da. trade is gone by then . This is only intended to present tools as screens as stated in the past. It is always the responsibility of individual trader to apply his game plan to their trading. My purpose of comments is to possibly offer additional trading tools, and or screens, to that game plan. For, hopefully ,educational purposes, and not educational confusion. gate
Comment by STEVE GARNER (GATE) — August 26, 2009 @ 8:33 am