Pattern Trading Context - multiple timeframes, gold breakout above $325, CRB index

Most of the content in day1 - day5 is extremely filtered. They are taken from my version of "Inside the Mind of a Tea-Leaf Reader" and are focused entirely on how I scalp eminis and trading patterns.  This page is much less filtered.  In the larger context, I am but one player in the team (or music band if you prefer rock 'n roll) of folks that work very hard every day.  Late-breaking news, fundamentals, stock quotes, excellent reporting, and balanced views (both bull, bear, or any furry creature imaginable) blend together every trading day.  We strive to make #pitstock a profitable and educational trading channel.

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Chart Signals

Session Start: Wed Oct 22 09:07:17 2003
[09:08] good morning
[09:08] summary of yesterday's action .. http://voodootrader.com/ta_5.htm
[09:09] will be last in series .. building a tool to allow anyone to search and build page based on past #pitstock logs
[09:13] any reason given for am doink in futures?
[09:14] ZB /bonds .. breakout above daily /20ema levels
[09:20] [enthios] Good morning. Today's Carta Diem: http://www.enthios.com/today.htm
[09:20] enthios - nice cover .. hope contents are as good
[09:21] [enthios] hi voodoo thanks
[09:21] [enthios] you know the saying :)
[09:22] sure doo
[09:23] ES .. ayem setup .. ES_intraday__1021_setup.gif
[09:23] whoops.. wrong day
[09:23] ES .. ayem setup .. ES_intraday__1022_setup.gif

[09:23] 5min candlesticks sure told a story into close yesterday.. but then again .. that is too fine a granularity
[09:27] called a rising channel breakdown
[09:27] first measure is to point of origin
[09:28] 990 comes onto radar with larger h&s pattern
[09:28] left shoulder .. was confirmed yesterday .. 10/9 spike high
[09:31] ES 1,035 .. to channel breakdown targets .. have 1,034.25 on radar
[09:31] scalpers will take the gift gap down open
[09:34] ES 1,034.25 .. knife catching games .. ES_intraday__1022_am.gif

[09:35] am giving til 9:55 as key AM pivot
[09:41] ES 1,036 .. when you take off your glasses and squint a bit (larger timeframe works too) .. can see that neckline of larger 9 day pattern is being tested here .. ES_intraday__1022_hs.gif

[09:42] most technicials would also consider this a setup for "island reversal"
[09:44] ISSX .. always wondered when/if this 3x knock breakout would start moving .. http://chart.mine.nu/chart?w&filter=8&ticker=ISSX

[09:45] smaller timeframe also tells a story with bullflag / symmetrical triangle combination .. http://chart.nu/chart?y_start=2003&filter=21&ticker=ISSX

[09:46] ES 1,034.25 .. key timing pivot on radar .. tick blinker on 5/35 momo .. tick -538
[09:47] ES 1,035 .. am setup .. ES_intraday__1022_am2.gif

[09:50] ES 1,033.5 .. tick -673 .. lod ..
[09:50] tick -747 .. an omen
[09:52] ES 1,032.75 .. key time pivot, here
[09:54] 65min tick timing cycle
[09:54] candle players on 5min watch for "inside" or doji games
[09:59] eye on tick momo here
[10:01] ES 1,033.5 .. doji dance .. shows there are "knife catchers" juggling .. ES_intraday__1022_doji.gif

[10:02] morning star?
[10:05] 1,034.25 - 1,036 are key for next few bars (count 'em) .. 10-10:15 window open
[10:06] bounce will most likely set yardstick for intraday "measures"
[10:08] just guessing .. based on yesterday's geometry (and larger timescales) .. that we get some type of odd choppy action in rising channel
[10:08] tick +595 ..hod
[10:11] biotech .. technicians wondering if it is serving as the lead-in batter in this 8th inning
[10:12] ES .. 3.5pt bounce
[10:13] given impulsive nature of first move ... consider a triangle as first consolidation sequence if +3.5pt bounce is height of first yardstick
[10:21] NVDA on radar as it takes on a series of coiled moving averages .. trendline check on daily will be a 4x knock .. http://chart.mine.nu/chart?y_start=2003&filter=21&ticker=NVDA

[10:22] currently sandwiched beneath 50dma, above 200dma + gap
[10:22] tick +829 .. hod
[10:23] ES 1,036 .. test of upper consolidation bounds
[10:24] eye on reaction to 1,036 on pullback move
[10:25] ES 1,036 .. am scenario .. ES_intraday__1022_ch.gif

[10:27] 5 bar sequences on 5min
[10:30] ES 1,035 .. noting overlapping wave structure
[10:31] key pullback sequence .. bulls will try and establish first higher-low
[10:34] dunno .. guess there are other traders that can manage smaller timescales, too .. SP_intraday__1022_lbr.gif

[10:34] ES 1,034 .. key 62% retrace test
[10:38] "wall" / gartley .. wolfewave + cliff + gap confirm + retrace to gap resist .. note that it also forms parameters for "gartley" on a-b-c retrace .. wall__1022_lbr.gif

[10:40] ES 1,022 .. tick -722 (lod retest)
[10:41] tick -833 .. lod .. divergence watch
[10:42] knife catcher's level
[10:43] Snow probably has hidden agenda of getting china to devalue
[10:49] ES 1,030.5 .. small "inside" stick
[10:52] ES 1,031 .. "toughest trade" spot for am action .. ES_intraday__1022_2x.gif

[11:04] 11am .. another 65min tick interval on radar
[11:05] should complete the series started yesterday
[11:07] QQQ, MDY, SPY, DIA .. testing daily /20ema "grail" .. beware of divergence confirm .. MARKETS_daily__1022.gif

[11:08] 20ema = grey (on all timeframes)
[11:10] should be a bounce somewhere here to relieve positive divergence
[11:10] on ES, that is
[11:22] USD /dollar daily .. had to relabel June bounce to a-b-c .. sigh, the perils of e-wave .. monitoring slight momentum divergence .. USD_daily__1022.gif

[11:25] (e-wave perils, part 1) .. previous cont .. had to be relabelled on failure @ 200dma .. USD_daily__0904.gif

[11:27] gartley would've had something to say about the previous setup if I didn't have a bias
[11:28] [IceDuck] gold gonna bust 400 ...its a matter of time
[11:29] XAU /gold miners.. excellent dd, courtesty of breakout pattern site .. XAU_monthly__1015.gif

[11:32] CL /crude .. pattern traders will recognize retrace to broken trendline .. very typical .. CL_monthly__1015.gif

[11:32] CRB /commodities .. no inflation? .. riiiight .. CRB_monthly__1015.gif

[11:34] hogs and hoofs are going wild, too
[11:34] DJIA /dow.com .. symmertical triangle looks familiar .. DJIA_hourly__1022_lbr.gif

[11:48] ES 1,031 .. pm setup .. ES_intraday__1022_pm.gif

[12:07] ES 1,031.. retest of lower bear flag bounds
[12:08] 65min cycle
[12:22] hmm.. no serious sell orders being pushed thru before noon swoon.
[12:22] time to think "vulnerable stops"
[12:23] [redart] lod?
[12:23] dunno really .. no rhythm has emerged since 11am
[12:25] indicies are consolidation at/around daily /20ema
[12:26] dollar is fading hard to test lows
[12:33] ES 1,030.25 .. lower bounds breaking
[12:33] tick -438
[12:34] ES 1,030.. 5min "doji"
[12:35] lower stop/clearing move ahead of 12:30-1:30 move?
[12:37] looking for 45min tick spacing to emerge .. a guess
[12:38] band is ready for the 2nd set .. change the tempo
[12:40] DPMI .. a 3*push sequence on momentum divergence .. http://chart.mine.nu/chart?y_start=2003&filter=21&macd&ticker=DPMI

[12:40] that chart points out a key issue:
[12:40] pattern calls are only possible after a confirmation level is reached .. in this case .. that is the fiilter= reading
[12:41] filer=21 means that you want a confirmation on move above /below 21 day exponential moving avearage
[12:41] whoops .. "filter" = confirm level
[12:41] charts utilize several internal swing algorithms to get inflection highs and lows right
[12:42] most of them are based on work of W.D. Gann .. and implemented by Robert Krausz
[12:42] e.g. notion of watching a trailing 3 day moving average of high or low as a parametric trailing stop
[12:43] in any case..
[12:43] chart patterns evolve
[12:43] to "backtest" an evolution
[12:43] click "Swing Signals" .. after you have displayed a chart .. http://chart.mine.nu/
[12:44] you can walk backwards over time to see how the chart evolves ..
[12:44] by clicking on dates presented on left
[12:45] both daily and weekly should go to the chosen -enddate- to display the setup at that time
[12:45] key idea .. is that whenever I post links .. "filter=" .. is a confirm level

[12:47] [chart`] like your work voodoo
[12:47] thx .. much appreciated
[12:54] Is an evolution of what I use every day to find the best reward:risk setup .. kinda raw, not many explanations, but am doing best to change that
[12:54] always free
[12:55] avoids hidden agendas
[12:56] catch y'all later
[13:07] ES 1,029 .. a "3.5pt measure" spot
[13:12] ES 1,029.75 .. feels like a completion of 3*push lower sequence .. needs confirm .. dunno .. ES_intraday__1022_pm2.gif

[13:12] eye on 1:20 timing signal
[13:35] ES 1,028 .. lod .. multi-day h&s pattern confirming
[13:36] finally was able to get proper geometry on today's channel .. using bounds from 10/17 .. ES_intraday__1022_fork.gif

[13:37] yes, very noisy
[13:39] SPX /sp500 .. a channel confirmation game, now .. http://chart.mine.nu/chart?ticker=SPX&macd&y_start=2003&m_start=5&filter=21

[13:40] divergence from last friday on daily is starting to confirm
[13:41] an explanation on chart price labels:
[13:42] if you see a pattern bracketted in underscores .. e.g. [_UP_] .. it indicates a divergence vs. oscillator .. higher prices, lower high in oscillator
[13:42] same is true in reverse for labels with ^ .. = bullish divergence
[13:48] interesting that scary movies are making a comeback
[13:48] folks wanna have their anxiety levels raised
[13:48] ZB /bonds .. still lifting off 62% retrace level .. and hourly channel breakout.. ZB_daily__1022.gif

[13:49] bonds tend to be a "fear factor" gauge
[13:49] can also explain massive asset allocation swaps vs. equity positions
[13:50] 4th up day in bonds
[13:51] ES 1,026.75 .. full bear flag pattern measurment from 11am .. is to 1,026.25
[13:51] tick -528
[13:51] [chase] there's a gap at 1021 still needs filling
[13:52] true .. but at that level .. all day patterns are complete
[13:52] nothing left to measure
[13:55] first tick signal of the day
[13:55] ES 1,028 .. setup for close .. ES_intraday__1022_close.gif

[14:05] ES 1,029 .. ready to test 5min/20ema about .5 higher
[14:08] ES 1,028.5.. another 45min timing interval
[14:11] "island reversal" can be considered confirmed .. resistance will be at the moat on any rebound
[14:14] [Mizc] good call voodoo, thanks! [11:43] [voodoo] most technicials would also consider this a setup for "island reversal"
[14:15] must be a secret wish for an island vacation .. dunno ;)
[14:17] [sagitt] Do you know company who work rhodium ?
[14:17] sagitt - a new one for me .. can't say I know .. PA /palladium technicals are kinda cool, also
[14:18] HG /copper should start a rounding process .. am basing that in Raschke's call .. .91 on dec contract
[14:19] eye on first higher-low attempt on 5min basis
[14:20] triangle attempt?
[14:26] [Ake] http://www.thisislondon.com/news/business/articles/timid69459?source= IT'S OFFICIAL - the bull market is back. Abby Joseph Cohen, legendary Wall Street optimist of the dotcom boom, broke cover today in London
[14:26] PA /palladium .. technically, a gartley from daily, along with trendline retest and e-wave 4 criteria in place .. PA_daily__1022.gif

[14:27] will need to mark re-emergene of Abbey Monkey Guru on charts .. 10/22/2003
[14:28] thx, Ake
[14:29] listen to her advice @ bottom spikes .. get ready for reversal @ market highs
[14:30] ISSX .. hod retest .. dayplayers can kick out
[14:30] eye will be on ISSX reaction to 17.23 based on daily/weekly
[14:31] that's for a later date
[14:34] Raschke review..
[14:35] "3 pushes" divergence, but very "tough trade" on a trend day .. SP_intraday__1022_15min_lbr.gif

[14:36] "grail" trading .. shifting to higher timeframe .. SP_intraday__1022_20ema_lbr.gif

[14:38] ES 1,028.25 .. first bounce back inside descending channel ..
[14:39] watch 5min /20ema and possible confirm of earlier triangle pattern call
[14:39] ES 1,028.5 .. 5min/20ema test
[14:40] ES 1,029 .. inflection high here creates 2.5pt horizontal channel
[14:40] tick +820
[14:41] tick .. is hod retest attempt, here
[14:41] tick +747 .. an omen?
[14:43] tick +840 .. hod
[14:43] hrm.. dunno why "think 3.5pts" comes to mind
[14:45] ES 1029.75 .. close update .. ES_intraday__1022_close2.gif

[14:46] "think 3.5pts" here .. 1,030 .. 5min/40ema
[14:46] first place for bulls to attempt a descending channel breakout manoever
[14:47] dang .. I hear an echo
[14:48] tick +845 .. hod
[14:49] ES 1,031 .. centerline of "andrew's pitchfork" channel tested here
[14:49] bulls now have small descending channel breakout to their credit
[14:50] bar #7 .. 5min .. eye on "doji"
[14:52] ES .. bounce in perspective .. ES_intraday__1022_doji2.gif

[14:53] a "doji" .. or small range bar .. is most usefull @ target levels
[14:54] it confirms that either profit taking is setting in .. and/or .. resistance/support is confirming
[14:55] best combinations .. if you wanna go into candle lore..
[14:55] are strong impulsive "maribozu" sticks .. followed by inside "doji" .. that is -always- a target confirm signal
[14:56] candle players .. if looking for reversal sequence .. will use 3rd stick to either confirm or deny something like an "evening doji star" or "morning doji star" combination
[14:57] quite honestly .. am too lazy to write a glossary .. or give examples
[14:58] doing it in realtime .. makes it just part of the trading process
[14:59] and clears up how different methodologies and patterns can blend ... on different timeframes
[15:00] different players .. see different things .. at different times .. know your poker opponents and whether they are bluffing .. know when to hold or fold

[14:59] [tradinoncofe] voodoo...how might one differentiate a bullish flag here from a reversal signal?
[15:03] tradinoncofe - yes.. this is the first spot where you can look for a bull flag on smallest timescale
[15:04] just like bear flags .. bull flags are most often created on the breakout of a descending channel (hint.hint)
[15:04] the flag portion usually forms in the "retest" portion of the channel breakout
[15:07] just like AM .. a channel breakout (or breakdown) .. usually measures to the point of origination .. gartley players will lurk @ the 62-78% retrace if there is a clear a-b-c visisble on chart
[15:10] NDX 1,393 .. a test of 15min/20ema on this bounce
[15:11] ES 1,030.5 .. "spinning tops" on 5min chart
[15:12] usually an indicator of indecision
[15:13] getting some ticker paints on spy to shakeout players
[15:15] ES 1,029.5 .. bar #6 .. retest of descending channel .. 5min/20ema "grail" here also
[15:16] would ideally like to see 1,029 converted .. better spot
[15:17] first place to be able to talk about possibilities of a bull flag
[15:18] needs impulse (6bars, +4.25pts) .. + a-b-c pullback
[15:18] ideally.. the 'c' corresponds to the notion of a right shoulder being built on an -inverse- h&s pattern
[15:20] best risk control comes on the move to 'c' and use the left shoulder spike lows as support
[15:20] turns ES scaling into a .5 risk control game
[15:21] ES 1,029.5 .. testing 5min 20ema+40ema as a cradle here
[15:23] ES 1,029 .. key test for close
[15:24] ES .. daily chart .. 3*push counts work there, also .. ES_intraday__1022__3push.gif
[15:25] whoopw.. will correct
[15:26] ES_daily__1022_3push.gif .. this was the batter warming up in dugout .. curveball specialist .. http://voodootrader.com/ES_daily__1010.gif

[15:30] ES 1,028 .. "think 3.5pts"
[15:31] ES 1,028.25 .. final update .. ES_intraday__1022.gif

[15:36] remember that thing about "3 black crows" and "3 white soldiers" ?
[15:36] see 5min chart
[15:40] BTK /biotech -3.8% .. DRG /pharma -3.3%
[15:40] [Chief] Cashin: We are price at perfection..folks thot things were so good thru 1st 3rd of reports and then 1/2 way thru things started to fall apart. We have had huge selling, not profit taking, and it qualifies as a distribution day cuz volume will be above 1.5b. Folks gonna trim back a day and see what happens. 1 day of this not too significant but if the bears can put 3 of these days together, there's cause for the bulls to be concerned. En
[15:41] did Cashin mention if the pony was there for xmas?
[15:42] Cashin talks in Haiku .. but very cool when you get the poem
[15:44] thx as always to [Chief] for reporting and sparing many of us from the 3-ring circus
[15:45] ES 1,028 .. first divergence watch possible here for a small bounce
[15:45] "tough trade" .. very little edge
[15:47] ES 1,027.75 .. small h&s .. rising neckline .. beware of test of lower trendline of spike lows
[15:47] tick -590 flush
[15:49] first place to play the 'c' game
[15:51] ES 1,028.5 .. ES_intraday__1022_c.gif

[15:52] for e-wavers .. wave 2 .. can retrace max 62% - 78% (hint.hint!) of previous advance
[15:53] using Krausz's rules .. you watch for first close above the 38% retrace level within any descending channel
[15:54] two points of views .. add in a rising trendline .. 3 thumbs up
[15:54] ES 1,029.75 .. possible symmetrical triangle on bounce could form .. 5min/40ema resist .. eye on doji games
[15:55] 4th knock on downtrend
[15:58] ES 1,029.5 .. triangle watch .. ES_intraday__1022_tri2.gif

[16:00] good nite, all .. hope you enjoyed a "candle" perspective to shed some light
[16:01] and yes.. it is possible to trade on a 5min timeframe
[16:01] all depends on context

 

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