Pattern Trading - Gartley, Head and Shoulders

Realtime Examples - Day 1

Session Start: Wed Oct 15 04:59:38 2003
[09:00] good morning
[09:48] tick -396 .. lod
[09:53] tick -770 .. lod slam
[09:53] nice momo extreme
[09:53] ES 1,048.5 is 5min /20ema
[10:03] next 5min bar is the key time pivot
[10:07] ES 1,047.5 .. am setup .. ES_intraday__1015_am.gif

[10:17] ES 1,045.5 .. testing yesterday's last hour lows
[10:18] small 3*push lower sequence ending .. eye on tick for any divergence for bounce
[10:19] 8.25 hadle range in first 45mins .. 2x yesterday's 4pt measures
[10:21] whoops.. breaking into yesterday's rising channel ..
[10:22] tick -956 .. lod
[10:23] ES 1,044.5 .. target level for opening range reversal, here
[10:47] seems there is another small bear flag on ES .. up to the 5min/20ema
[10:52] ES 1,047 .. key test of 5min/20ema
[10:56] ES 1,047 .. am update .. ES_intraday__1015_am2.gif

[11:28] ES 1,047 .. watching the choppy action in rising channel .. still consolidating
[11:35] ES 1,046.5 .. testing lower bounds of tight rising channel .. 'b' wave?
[11:36] [redart] voodoo, was "a" the 1044--> 1048 move?
[11:38] corrective waves are kinda weird .. they usually unfold in a sharp "measure" that looks like a tight a-b-c .. a break of the lower bounds of that sharp rise gets bears excited and pressing .. but most often only produces the first higher-low .. 'b' wave
[11:38] I tend to wait out the first corrective wave and play what bulls often consider the right shoulder of inverse h&s if there is an obvious support level
[11:39] that is often the first 'b'ouce level
[11:40] the run into final 'c' .. is from bears stuck on the first channel break .. and bulls gaming the first higher low
[11:40] ideally .. 'c' end is some type of 3-push movement
[11:41] I just assume a certain pattern evolution and ensure that price action meets my expectations
[11:42] dunno. am setup is still the same .. only 15mins left in this rising channel according to plan ..
[11:43] am kinda assuming lower bounds is broken .. and creates first higher-low attempt
[11:57] final tick movement before noon swoon?
[12:09] ES 1,048 .. probing for vulnerable stops here
[12:11] kinda feels like that 'c', eh?
[12:12] [redart] "c" = "a" meas?
[12:12] in best setups, yes
[12:12] draw parallel channel off first higher low
[12:12] copy it
[12:13] make it off first spike high .. the "measure"
[12:13] in about 75% of the case .. the "p-line", parallel line, or "measure" gets tagged .. both up and down
[12:14] if you don't get a full measure.. it is often an impending signal of a reversal shaping up
[12:20] take out your crayons, squish eyes, and doodle around .. you come up with something like this .. a setup for pm action .. ES_intraday__1015_pm.gif

[12:23] something for everyone there .. bulls see a higher low ..
[12:23] bears see a "bear flag" building ..
[12:38] ES 1,048.75 .. watch for breakout attempt here
[12:38] tick +884
[12:39] tick +968 .. hod .. odd action in futures (not responding)
[12:44] ES 1,049.25 .. eye is on any movement to test 1,050 in next 10mins
[12:45] [ford] voodoo if you dont mind me asking, what is the gartley label on the latest pm chart?
[12:45] gartley is a 5-point pattern .. that ties directly into the notion of a-b-c retrace to a 62% of impulse down @ 1,050
[12:46] it has very specific rules about the final wave up in time and price
[12:46] is simple iimpulse - retrace pattern
[12:47] impulse = "measure" .. a-b-c is retrace, with a monitoring of the 62% level .. 'a' == 'b'
[12:48] whoops ... 'a' == 'c' .. in time and price
[12:48] [chinawhite] voo, a-b-c with 1050 trgr on measured move?
[12:49] that's the idea, yeah .. 12:50-1pm timeframe
[12:50] right now .. you start looking at the wave structure .. often, the final impulse is a wolfewave pattern in a 3*push higher sequence
[12:50] dunno.. just running scenarios thru my peabrain on what should be 'expected'
[12:52] [redart] voodoo , the big dwn move this am could be "1" and now we have seen a,b,c, impulse up, thern we could see another big dwn?
[12:53] would kinda expect a push higher to show here .. nothing matters until 1:15 pivot passes
[12:53] dunno really.. if you are a strict elliott-waver, sure
[12:53] this is just a pattern that presents itself a lot .. just following the pattern play today .. tomorrow it will be quite different, most likely
[12:54] [chinawhite] voo correct me if I am faafing rubbish - my impression is EW really works in hindsight - too arbitrary for a real-time trading system. what r yr thots?
[12:54] there is a -TON- of overlap in the way that different folks describe trading setups
[12:54] they all mean the same thing
[12:55] e-wave is most often studied in retrospect
[12:55] but that means sh*t
[12:55] put it to work in realtime is only thing that matters
[12:55] why I don't bother with much of the junk out there
[12:55] "defy human nature .. do the work yourself"
[12:56] don't surrender to some other dork that believes they can count
[12:56] that is a direct afront to Bob Prechter over @ EWI who has tried to call top since April 2003
[12:57] or more likely .. Steve Hochberg
[12:59] ES 1,049 .. within .25 of "gartley" in time&price .. pm update .. ES_intraday__1015_g222.gif

[13:00] noting head's up signal on 5/35 tick momentum .. a 10min lead
[13:04] ES 1047.25 .. test of rising channel, lower bounds .. 5min/40ema
[13:05] would make sense to get a shallow bounce .. only 2nd knock on trendline
[13:08] basically .. a bear flag is now built on intraday basis .. impulse + abc correction .. start looking for a confirm
[13:09] thank you, mr MM .. right on queue
[13:10] from here .. pattern evolution would suggest to watch for a natural neckline and then a shoulder (rounding pattern)
[13:15] ES 1,047.5 .. here on in .. 2 numbers to watch for impending trend action and figure out which way they wanna push price action .. levels that could form a h&s rounding pattern .. ES_intraday__1015_pm2.gif

[13:31] ES 1,048.5 .. range hi test .. natural shoulder test
[13:32] tick +734 .. looking for any type of divergence to show
[13:35] ES 1,048 .. nice, slow motion pattern games .. watch for retest of 1,048.5 (for symmetry purposes) and any clues from tick momentum .. ES_intraday__1015_hs.gif

[13:35] candle players will keep eyes out for a tweezer top
[13:36] next inflection down would be 3rd knock on rising channel, lower trendline .. once done, probably results in a neckline retest
[13:39] seems 2pm the judge+jury will show up
[13:41] this is one of those dorky bull (5min) vs. bear (15min) flag setups .. no edge
[13:48] ES 1,048.5 .. 2nd test of shoulder .. perfect symmetry in place
[13:50] ES 1,047.5 .. eye goes to the retest of neckline at 1,046.75
[14:01] 2pm .. all rise for da judge
[14:01] ES 1,046.75 .. neckline retest .. 3rd knock on rising channel, lower bounds broke .. "rounding" now visible
[14:08] ES 1,048.25 .. this is the tough spot .. 2 completed patterns are now in place on 5min basis .. tight risk control is right @ 1,048.75 .. ES_intraday__1015_close.gif

[14:09] in general .. a right shoulder of h&s is formed as a rising channel is broken and a rebounce results to test a prior spike high
[14:10] rebounce = rebound
[14:11] this is where tick momentum is watch for early clues
[14:16] keep a 4th knock on 1,046.75 on radar .. basement door could oen
[14:16] oen = open
[14:27] ES 1,046.75 .. time to extend pattern horizon and look for downside targets as support breaks .. look to spike low at 1,045.75 and full measure to 1,044 .. ES_intraday__close2.gif
[14:28] whoops .. ES_intraday__1015_close2.gif

[14:29] ES 1,045.5 .. break of neckline is now cnofirmed ..
[14:29] confirmed
[14:29] any weak bounce to 1,046.75 will only confirm the setup .. a chance to prove past support -> future resistance
[14:32] tick -73.. still very mild
[14:33] ES 1,045 .. full measure to 1,044 now comes onto radar as momentum to downside builds .. looking for tick -300 or so to confirm
[14:34] tick -391
[14:40] ES 1,044 .. bingo ..h&s target .. turn&burn level .. lod retest
[14:41] ES 1,044.25 .. another update .. ES_intraday__1015_close3.gif

[14:41] a level to watch for divergences vs. 10:15 am momentum
[14:42] tick 5/35 macd is the one to watch here
[14:42] perfect 45 min timing signals
[14:43] a 'natural' rebounce could carry as far as 1,046
[14:44] look for another right rising channel to form with the initial bounce providing a measure
[14:45] I tend to grab the parallel lines from 10:15 bounce as the first slope to game
[14:48] ES 1,043.5 .. testing a multi-day trendline of higher-lows
[14:49] start looking for a 3*push series if overlapping waves present on 5min chart
[14:51] ES 1,043.25 .. 2nd push lower .. ES_intraday__1015_2x.gif

[14:52] eye for any serious trendline violation to get autoproggies running
[14:53] testing / violating a 6-day trend here .. veyr key
[14:53] whoops.. 7 day trend .. since 10/7 lows
[14:54] full bear flag measure goes to 1,039.75
[14:54] just broke on my chart
[14:54] and showing with impulse action
[14:55] tick -756 .. lod retest
[14:55] tick momentum is breaking to new lows
[15:00] ES 1,042.75 .. continues to violate trendline supports .. ES_intraday__1015_3x.gif

[15:02] slight tick rebound .. 10min lead-in
[15:20] ES 1,043.75 .. final update .. all patterns complete .. final 45min tick timing interval .. ES_intraday__1015.gif

[15:21] hope all the pattern mumbo-jumbo helped
[15:21] [chinawhite] voo - dont u think there was not 3rd push which wud take ES to baer bull trgt (5 min) of 1040?
[15:21] don't listen to hype of folks crying for 52-week highs or other garbage
[15:21] [chinawhite] baer = bear
[15:21] china - no
[15:21] [chinawhite] why voo?
[15:21] as mentioned .. tick momentum provided timing at the "3x" spot
[15:22] nothing else mattered
[15:22] lower prices , equal low in oscillator .. definition of a divergence
[15:23] today was -exactly- same principals .. in realtime
[15:23] with a few pattern games thrown in
[15:23] call it what you want..
[15:23] it is all the same thing .. anticipation .. reaction .. and confirmations
[15:26] y'all welcome .. hopefully it wasn't too painfully slow .. but all this stuff does work .. if you know what to look for
[15:27] elliott, gartley, a-b-c, measured moves, 3*pushes, head&shoulders, divergences, support/resistance, trendlines, channels .. all part of larger picture
[15:29] this isn't a slot machine .. it is a poker game .. know your players .. and work the odds .. think, don't be stupid
[15:31] ES 1,044.25 .. small bounce to test 5min/20ema resist
[15:36] ES 1,045.5 .. test of 12am spike low
[15:36] tick +611 .. nearing a momentum high
[15:37] ES 1,046 .. testing 62% retrace bounce
[15:37] another 4pt "measure" presenting itself
[15:38] 8 down .. 4 up
[15:40] ES 1,045.75 .. dunno .. earlier impulse bounce was also to 62% level .. seems to make sense .. ES_intraday__1015_bounce.gif

[15:41] bulls may consider entire action on intraday to be a larger a-b-c pullback against larger trend (bull flag)
[15:41] watch trendline of spike highs here on intraday basis
[15:42] breakout of upper bounds will be the bull's confirmation they are watching
[15:42] currently 1,046.25 on my 5min charts
[15:43] 3rd knock, here
[15:47] and finally .. another channel game .. ball is in the bull's court to prove something, here .. ES_intraday__1015_ch.gif

[16:00] ES 1,045 .. unable to maintain channel breakout .. eye is on any higher-low to be established
[16:00] good nite, all

 

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