Chart Pattern Players - know your timeframe, know your opponent

Las Vegas is a cool place.  Glitz, glamour - a game for every - a vice for everyone.  More amazingly, there are those that go to gamble, knowing all too well the odds are stacked against them.  Yet they enjoy the roll of the dice, flip of a card, speed of the pony, or tug on a slot machine - nowadays reduced to a more convenient button pressing endeavor.

Poker players are another breed; these pirahnas play against oneanother.  Beyond good knowledge of statistical odds, they must learn skills of body language control, strategic baiting or bluffing, and psychology.  The cash pool for which they compete is limited by the amount players bring to the table.  Many parallels can be drawn between the markets and the way poker players learn to win.

This session focuses on eight timing styles as they rotate to the table on a 5min timeframe:

gann = are focused on channels - higher-low and lower-high are tanamount to spotting trend reversals
candle = look for "maribozu" + "doji" combinations and candlestick formations, context of larger pattern is king
scalper = rely on support and resistance levels, objective setups, and aims for the most timely entries and exits
gartley = want an impulse + abc bounce, time and price confirmations, also known to be seen with flag players
wolfewave = overlapping wave structure is setup signal, tick is used for timing signals, likes to nail reversals
bar counter = work a trade for 6-8 bars, maximum before expecting a reversal or stall, present at all timeframes
elliott wave = fibonacci extensions or retraces play a big role, pays attention to impulse vs. consolidation waves
head and shoulders = symmetry is very key, combined with trendline, volume, and support/resist levels

Chips on the Table

Session Start: Thu Oct 23 09:19:40 2003
[09:20] good morning
[09:21] seems ES wants immediate symmetrical triangle downside measurement -4.75pts off breakdown point at 1,027.75
[09:25] ES .. am setup .. ES_intraday__1023_setup.gif

[09:26] am watching USD /dollar .. a clean 5-wave down structure on daily chart
[09:34] tick -267 .. lod
[09:35] tick -355 .. am watching next 5min interval as am key-time-bar
[09:36] tick momo trying turn signal
[09:37] [^Sam] Good Morning All
[09:38] no .. a spike extreme on a divergence
[09:38] gm, Sam
[09:40] tick -553 .. still no signal thrown, yet .. lod
[09:42] am watching 1,024 for first attempt to establish support
[09:42] on larger scale.. this leel could be establishing another neckline baed oni 10/7 spike lows
[09:44] ES 1,026 .. 2.5pt bounce, so far
[09:46] tick +416 .. hod
[09:46] starting to get range expansion
[09:46] ES 1,026.5 .. am setup .. ES_intraday__1023_am.gif

[09:49] ES 1,026.75 .. bar#5 .. giving another 10-15mins into 10-10:15 window
[09:54] ES 1,028 .. retrace here to broken trendline
[09:54] could stall / consolidate at this level for a bit .. bar #6
[09:55] tick +720 .. hod
[09:58] ES 1,030 .. am update .. key trendline test hereES_intraday__1023_am2.gif

[09:59] tick +1,006 .. 10-10:15 window opening
[09:59] doji watch on 5min
[10:09] ES 1,027.25 .. eye is on 1,026 into first retrace move
[10:10] will assume 30min drum beat
[10:10] ES 1,026.5 .. 50% retrace of dayrance
[10:10] dayrange
[10:16] kinda sounds odd .. but, if just for symmetry purposes vs 10/3-10/7 .. would seem to make sense for a 2-3 day choppy lift
[10:19] looking for final swack lower into 10:30 timing
[10:21] USD /dollar .. key level /sequence .. "maribozu" + inside "doji" .. USD_daily__1023.gif

[10:22] eye goes to 1,029 as a key trendline breakout level .. bulls will do everything they can to bust thru
[10:22] 4x knock setup on descending channel, upper bounds
[10:24] ES 1,030.25 .. hod
[10:27] ES 1,031.5 .. small trendline breakout manoever .. ES_intraday__1023_tri.gif

[10:28] tick divergence on push higher .. will watch for any overlapping wave structure to determine if 3rd push higher will show
[10:30] Raschke .. key insight .. great example of pattern -anticipation- .. SP_intraday__1023_lbr.gif

[10:41] ES 1,028.5 .. 30min perspective of the action over the past few days with key patterns highlighted .. ES_intraday__1023_30min_hs.gif

[10:41] much cleaner than the 5min "working surface"
[10:41] ES 1,028.5 .. noting overlapping wave structure on 5min chart
[10:42] wolfewave players go into anticipation mode
[10:44] reason for kinda expecting the larger 1-2 day lift .. is to get -symmetry- with an existing left shoulder level, nothing more .. overhead gap down open from yesterday will be considered resist going into tomorrow
[10:48] ES 1,027.25 .. needs solid bounce here to play ww setup
[10:49] ES 1,028 .. the 3*push / ww setup .. "toughest trade" of am session .. ES_intraday__1023_4.gif

[10:50] GC /gold -2.9
[10:50] odd divergence vs. SF /swiss franc and EC /euro
[10:54] 30min timing intervals seems to be working
[10:55] ES 1,027 .. bar #6 in pullback
[10:55] tick -476 .. lod retest level
[11:00] HG /copper (dec) .. struggling a bit with the .91 level .. doji day (indecision)
[11:07] GC /gold .. gartley players are now pressing their bets .. GC_daily__1023_g222.gif

[11:07] ES 1,026.75 .. very weak bounce sequence, so far .. a natural neckline level could form here
[11:09] ZB /bonds .. retrace to test hourly /20ema as support
[11:11] ES 1,026.5 .. key test of 10:10am spike low
[11:12] broken - ww setup is not void
[11:12] not=now
[11:12] tick -632 .. lod
[11:13] ES 1,025.75 .. 62% retrace of AM bounce, here
[11:13] tick -841 .. lod
[11:14] excess slam .. eye to 1,026.25 on any weak rebound to prove as resist
[11:14] inside "doji"
[11:15] tick turn signal .. unconfirmed
[11:16] watch for any impulse movement .. would be buy/sell orders being pushed thru before swoon
[11:21] giving until 1:30 to go onto divergence watch (5min charts) - 30min timing
[11:24] ES 1,024.5 .. retest of multi-day neckline .. using 10/7 spike low
[11:24] scalper moment
[11:39] ES 1,026.75 .. got bounce to the desired test level
[11:39] channel games? .. just one scenario .. ES_intraday__1023_ch.gif

[12:03] ES 1,029.25 .. another trendline breakout attempt
[12:03] keep eye on upper channel bounds into any solid ramp .. tick +917
[12:04] upper bounds comes into play right at 1,030.25 - 1,031
[12:04] +5.5pt bounce .. scalper level
[12:05] symmetrical triangle players may have something to say here
[12:06] eye back on tick turn signal
[12:08] ES 1,029 (very familiar level) .. update ahead of swoon period 12:30 - 1:30 .. ES_intraday__1023_tri2.gif

[12:08] [Amity] anyone have a view on the US Market
[12:09] amity - yup .. we're all sitting in front of our one-button bandits
[12:10] word play on "one-armed bandits"
[12:11] looking for any end to a 3*push higher sequence right into 12:30 turn
[12:12] e-wave players .. may start some type of 3-3-5 scenario counting
[12:13] [Amity] at the dows high we have put on 2000 pts since mar this year.... 6 months!
[12:14] amity - perhaps you may want to refer to the Oct-Dec 2002 lift .. 3months
[12:14] [Amity] how many pts voodoo/
[12:15] 1,850
[12:15] dow.com .. weekly .. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$INDU,uu[m,a]weclyimy[pb50!b200!g55.0!f][vc60][ila12,26,9!lh14,3]

[12:16] March .. was only the first lower-high
[12:16] either a 'b' ..or wave 2 setup
[12:17] duhh! .. higher-low
[12:17] called a "measured move"
[12:17] gartley players working on weekly basis would also have something to say
[12:18] already done
[12:18] [Amity] you think likely voodoo
[12:19] amity .. here was the setup in April:
[12:20] "gartley" / 'b' / wave 2 / "measured move" .. QQQ_daily__0422_g222.gif

[12:20] SPX /sp500 .. cycle analysis, targets for "measured move" .. SPX_daily__0422.gif

[12:21] NDX .. from an elliott perspective .. note the anticipation of a wave 5 to unfold .. NDX_intraday__0423_am.gif

[12:22] whatever the view .. lots of -technicians- played the first higher-low in March-April 2003
[12:24] P&F players saw this: .. Iraq II scenario .. note the "I think we're around here" signpost .. part of "Is Saddam or the Bears in More Trouble?" .. SPX_pnf__1990.gif

[12:25] 12:30 window
[12:25] keep 1,031 on radar for any push higher
[12:26] an inflection high here .. confirms symmetrical triangle pattern on 5min chart
[12:30] ES 1,030 .. doji dance .. fwiw .. 1,030.25 is the "measured move" target level
[12:32] candle players watch for tweezer top
[12:41] catch y'all later

[13:23] ES 1,030.25 .. still have eye on move to 1,031+
[13:24] wolfewave players are noting the overlapping wave structure since 12am
[13:29] ES 1,031 .. 3rd push higher, here
[13:34] ES 1,031 .. pm update .. watch the ww and upper channel .. e-wavers are watching the triangle -> channel 3-3-5 count .. ES_intraday__1023_ww.gif

[13:38] tick signal
[13:54] ES 1,032.25 .. key level .. setup for close .. ES_intraday__1023_close.gif

[13:57] ES 1,032.5 .. "toughest trade" spot for pm session
[13:58] whoops.. my mistake.. there, now
[13:59] level to watch tick momo readings
[13:59] has been going thru its own symmetrical triangle consolidation .. tick 5/35 macd, that is
[14:00] 2pm signal triggered .. will watch any swoon into 2:30 tick timing interval
[14:01] risk control is .t
[14:01] .5
[14:02] for "p-line" or parallel-line traders .. or 3-3-5 e-wavers .. targets have been met
[14:04] ES 1,032.25 .. 30min perspective .. a forest view .. ES_intraday__1023_hs2.gif

[14:06] pure symmetry suggest to watch 1,033.5-1,035
[14:07] ES 1,033.5 .. approaching p-line off spike 10:25 high .. within .5
[14:08] tick +1,196 .. hod tagged
[14:09] .. the symmetry will stop somewhere .. all a matter of being able to figure out when the music has stopped and it is a matter of "musical chairs"
[14:13] am looking for a doji game somewhere here
[14:15] tick turn signal .. first of pm session
[14:15] looking for doji confirm on 5min
[14:16] still strong .. "maribozu" in place
[14:18] at this juncture .. p-lines on 3min chart will be re-adjusted to whatever spike high is established .. earlier channel demarcations were a scenario guess
[14:18] 3min = 30min
[14:20] duh ... should've known .. same channel geometry as 10/20-10/22 sequence
[14:22] fwiw .. 1,034.25 .. is neckline of 9-day h&s pattern
[14:22] "retrace to breakdown" ?
[14:24] 8bar - 5min sequence completed
[14:42] ES 1,032.25 .. 5min/20ema on radar 'bout .5 lower
[14:45] ES 1,031.5 .. test of 5min/20ema as support .. bar #6 in pullback, so far
[14:48] tick -423 donik
[14:50] tick momo equilibrium .. first of pullback -> doji watch
[14:51] ES 1,030.25 .. close update .. bar#7 in pullback sequence, on doji watch, "maribozu" in place .. ES_intraday__1023_close2.gif

[14:52] no go.. downside bar .. ES 1,029.5 .. watching wave structure
[14:53] channel players /scalpers step in here .. 3rd knock on rising channel, lower bounds
[14:55] ES 1,029.75 .. bar #8
[14:56] 2pm signal play here... use .5 risk control
[14:56] in larger sequence .. wolfewave is now confirmed
[14:57] ya.. this is the "toughest trade" level for the close
[14:59] h&s dayplayers will look for natural necklines and shoulders
[15:00] tick put on the blinker signal .. needs confirm
[15:01] count the 5min bars
[15:06] my eye is on reaciton to 1,028.5
[15:10] ES 1,029 .. ES_intrday__1023_3pm.gif
[15:10] sheesh
[15:10] ES_intraday__1023_3pm.gif

[15:11] am using smaller channel break for shoulder template / pivot
[15:12] ES 1,030.5 is where nature could kick in .. decision pt for close
[15:17] if you want to read more about channels .. I suggest W.D. Gann - for the most modern approaches combined with fibonacci signals, multiple timeframe analysis .. I highly recommend Robert Krausz at http://fibonaccitrader.com/
[15:17] ES 1,030.5
[15:17] test of 5min /20ema "grail" as a resistance point
[15:18] 5min tick timing pivot window .. make-or-break
[15:19] tick +606
[15:21] profit taking = "rounded tops" on charts
[15:22] ES 1,031.5 .. bar #4 in series
[15:23] this is last chance level for h&s players
[15:24] +3.25pt bounce
[15:25] cinderella will fight the metamophisis back into a pumpkin if 1,031.5 (previous resist, coun't convert to support) .. kicks in
[15:39] eye goes back to 1,028.25 neck
[15:40] ES 1,029.. scalpers / channel players here
[15:42] would like to give a lot of credit to all the folks that bring you #pitstock every day .. if nothing else.. read just the intro .. pattern-trading-context.htm
[15:50] ES 1,031.25 .. final update .. ES_intraday__1023.gif

[16:00] ES 1,032 .. "gartley" on 5min timescale
[16:00] [^Sam] Good Night all
[16:00] nite, Sam
[16:00] good nite, all
[16:01] peace, all

 

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