Pattern Trading - Wolfewave, Channel

Realtime Examples - Day 5

Session Start: Tue Oct 21 09:46:29 2003
[09:46] good morning
[10:06] ES 1,042.25 .. testing 5min/20ema as support .. overlapping wave structure has wolfe players on their toes for any 3rd push higher
[10:08] ES 1,044.25 .. tick +674 .. 3*push higher sequence unfolding here
[10:09] tick +870 .. hod .. 10-10:15 window open
[10:09] key 5min interval .. eye is on reaction to 1,044.75
[10:11] allowing lift until 10:20am
[10:15] ES 1,045.25 .. gap closure .. tick +956
[10:17] ES 1,045.25 .. am setup .. ES_intraday__1021_am.gif

[10:24] tick +923 .. hod retest ..
[10:24] candle players look for a doji sequence on 5min charts
[10:24] divergence watch level
[10:25] [chase] did we get a WW Voodoo?
[10:25] more importantly .. did you take the trade?
[10:27] yes.. wolfewave setup is place , perfect structure+ timing .. needs confirm
[10:27] key will be at test of 1,044
[10:37] ES 1,043.25 .. test of 5min/20ema into pullback .. ww confirming
[10:38] tick -374 .. lod
[10:39] ES 1,042.75 .. testing trendline of spike lows .. could break
[10:40] could stabilize here before full ayem trend takes effect
[10:42] ES 1,043 .. am update .. will watch for small choppy bounce in rising channel .. ES_intraday__1021_am2.gif

[10:44] ES 1,042.5 .. rising channel, lower bounds being tested here .. 3rd knock sequence
[10:52] basement door opened
[10:54] ES 1,042.5 .. seems there could be a natural right shoulder at 1,044 .. will consider that AM resist overhead
[10:54] bearish players will be seing a rising wedge breakdown on 5min chart
[10:57] that's just the nature of how the tick readings work
[11:07] ES 1,042.75 .. overlapping wave structure showing.. test of 5min/20ema as oerhead, here
[11:12] ES 1,043 .. small h&s sets up if resist proves at 1,043.5 shoulder
[11:19] ES 1,043.5 .. just doodling .. am watching how price action reacts to broken channel, lower bounds .. .5 risk level .. ES_intraday__1021_hs.gif

[11:30] ES 1,042.5 .. toughest spot in the book .. no edge, here
[11:42] for candle players .. it is kinda interesting when you encounter particular 3-stick sequences
[11:42] "3 black crows" is usually bearish .. "3 white soldiers" bullish ..
[11:42] but following an article in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities .. it is kinda rare to get follow-thru on the 4th day
[11:43] instead.. the range set by the candle pattern should be used to watch for any retests of upper or lower bounds .. much better risk control
[11:43] [lyle] Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities <- magazine or web site?
[11:44] website is at http://traders.com/
[11:50] ES 1,043.5 .. 4rd test of this level
[11:51] tick +727 .. not very strong
[11:52] ES 1,044.5 .. a small "measured move" bounce level
[11:54] tick +879 .. h&s pattern broken
[11:56] ES 1,044.75 .. am update .. will look for some counter-trend action for noon swoon .. ES_intraday__1021_mm.gif

[11:56] catch y'all later
[12:14] ES 1,046.5 .. first clear pattern to emerge .. pm setup .. ES_intraday__1021_ww.gif

[13:24] ES 1,045.25 .. mid-channel .. pullback here to test 5min/40ema .. /20ema is overhead, currently
[13:25] 12:30-1:30 counter-play is over
[13:27] dd = due diligence .. perhaps a virtue before you take a trading stance
[13:40] ES 1,046 .. pm setup .. ES_intraday__1021_pm.gif

[13:49] ES 1,046.75 .. tagged upper channel bounds
[13:50] eye on divergences vs 5/35 macd
[13:50] equal highs in prices, lower high in oscillator
[13:50] tick divergence, also
[14:18] ES 1,045.75 .. pm update .. ES_intraday__1021_pm2.gif

[14:19] draw upper and lower bounds and you get an ascending triangle consolidation .. or perhaps another horizontal channel
[14:22] ES 1,044.25.. lower channel test
[14:23] eye goes to 1,043 level .. lower bounds of intraday rising trendline
[14:24] if 1,044.5 holds.. game is a 3pt channel
[14:29] ES 1,045.5 .. a-b-c in place .. bulls may consider this a flag setup .. ES_intraday__1021_abc.gif

[14:34] ES 1,047.5 .. "think 3pts"
[14:45] ES 1,046.5 .. confirming 3pt channel games
[14:45] not if you are playing the 10-15min wiggles
[14:46] am watching 1,045.75 reaction into pullback
[14:50] am considering 3:20pm as key time pivot in PM session
[14:54] ES 1,047.25 .. 3rd knock on upper channel (bull flag) .. key make-or-break
[14:57] ES 1,047.5 .. breakout attempt here
[15:03] ES 1,046.5 .. setup for close .. ES_intraday__1021_close.gif

[15:04] am looking for swack lower into 3:20
[15:07] ES 1,045.75 .. another "toughest trade" level .. no edge
[15:10] tick momo dn
[15:10] tick -412 .. lod is @ -496
[15:12] ES 1,044.5 .. "think 3pts"
[15:17] ES 1,045.25 .. channel surfing .. ES_intraday__1021_close2.gif

[15:21] have had some questions about 3-3-5 consolidations (elliott-wave)
[15:21] they are usually easy to spot and trade .. yesterday and 10/10 were ones
[15:22] 3-3 .. are the lead-in waves .. two abc or "measured move" games, back to back .. usually in the form of a larger symmetrical triangle
[15:22] the -5 .. is the final abc that morphs the triangle into a channel
[15:23] there is a move to the triangle bounds, followed by treakout
[15:23] the breakout .. is impulsive .. and will yield a 5-wave structure
[15:24] the nature is that you have "trapped" 1/2 of the triangle surfing participants
[15:24] ES 1,044.5 .. 4th knock
[15:24] tick -445
[15:25] basement door needs WD-40
[15:26] a halloween theme, I guess
[15:27] ES .. reaching 5min 5/35 macd "equilibrium" here .. will test intraday rising channel, lower bounds @ 1,043.5
[15:28] overlapping wave structures .. blinker signal
[15:29] count the bars
[15:30] has played out in 6+6 pairs all day long
[15:30] yields a 65 tick spacing interval
[15:31] 65min
[15:32] count to 3 .. filtered tick momo is always the guide @ turn points.. ES_intraday__1021_3x.gif

[15:33] note 5min price action .. 5/35 macd .. is @ "equilbrium" where histrogram = reading
[15:33] a signal that correction .. or divergences on the timeframe .. are completing
[15:34] dunno .. 3:20pm .. 5/35macd on price action .. tick momo #3 .. good signals to watch for turn
[15:35] "best things in life are 3"
[15:35] tick +823
[15:41] ES 1,047 .. "think 3pts" .. 6 bars
[15:43] ES 1,046.5 .. dunno .. feels kinda like romper room .. ES_intraday__1021_3pts.gif

[15:46] Raschke .. truly had no clue this was being discussed today .. just looked, great examples of setups called today
[15:47] "equilibrium" .. SP_intraday__1021_lbr.gif

[15:49] ES 1,046.25 .. noting the rhythm change
[15:50] note the overlapping wave structure presenting itself on that metal
[15:50] ES 1,044.25 .. this is there support breaks
[15:51] ES 1,044 .. "3pts"
[15:52] ES 1,043.5 .. rising channel .. breakdown test
[15:52] watch for any shakeout manoever
[15:53] 6bars
[15:53] rhythm changed
[15:54] candle players watch for 5min doji sequence ..
[15:56] blinker
[15:57] [enthios] 5mins is too small a time period for candles to make any sense
[15:57] [enthios] ;)
[15:58] [enthios] sorry...that's just an opinion :P
[15:58] not if you are thinking and like to play with knifes .. ES_intraday__1021_doji.gif

[15:58] [enthios] generaly 30 mins is the minimum size for the original japanese candlesticks to really make any sense
[15:58] [TheLASCONE] [enthios] i use 5 min .. but i heard John murphy at the expo say .. he only trust daily
[15:58] [enthios] anything below that, i just use bar charts
[15:59] [enthios] well if you think about it, it makes sense
[15:59] John Murphy doesn't daytrade eminis
[15:59] [enthios] Open and Close are critical to the candle
[15:59] [enthios] but only Daily has an Open and a Close
[15:59] [enthios] anything smaller than that, is contiguous with the next candle
[15:59] [TheLASCONE] no voodoo but his partner is candle expert
[15:59] true
[16:00] [enthios] in other words, there is no "conscious" open or close, in terms of market behaviour or trader psycholofy
[16:00] [enthios] psychology
[16:00] but Murphy trades on daily basis
[16:00] [enthios] as compared to the daily open and close
[16:00] [TheLASCONE] ok
[16:00] [enthios] which we all know is significant
[16:00] if he scalped eminis .. he would use exact same methodology he uses for dailies
[16:00] [enthios] so you can use intraday candles, but they just don't really tell you the same thing
[16:00] [enthios] However, I do like the 135-min candle
[16:00] [enthios] because that divides the day into three equal trading parts
[16:00] [enthios] morning, deadzone, and afternoon
[16:01] sorry that breakout trading doesn't work on days like this, enthios
[16:01] [enthios] Who mentioned breaktout trading?
[16:01] [enthios] There are many excellent methods for trading intraday...
[16:01] good nite, all
[16:01] good bye, mkt
[16:02] ES 1,041.5
[16:03] doink

 

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