Pattern Trading - Wolfewave Target

Realtime Examples - Day 3

Session Start: Fri Oct 17 09:39:57 2003
[09:40] good morning
[09:45] ES 1,049.5 .. still looking for a small wolfewave confirm on 5 min chart
[09:48] ES 1,051.5 .. impulse up attemp
[09:48] tick +807 .. hod
[09:49] wolfewave setup now perfect on 5min chart
[09:49] looking for inflection down
[09:52] ES 1,047.5 .. tick -219 (lod)
[09:55] ES 1,047.25 .. am games .. wolfewave is confirming (setup into yesterday's close and spike hi 15mins ago) .. ES_intraday__1017_am.gif

[10:00] setup still the same .. picture just a little less fuzzy
[10:00] ES .. eye goes to 1,045 for first signs of stability /support
[10:01] ES .. has already tagged the wolfewave target line .. think "4pts" off yesterday's close setup
[10:01] 1,045 will be test of rising neckline, or lower bounds of rising channel
[10:03] ES 1,044 .. key 5min time sequence here .. 10-10:15 window openning
[10:04] tick -808 .. new momentum lows
[10:06] ES 1,043 .. am update .. ES_intraday__1017_am2.gif

[10:06] tick has blinker signal on
[10:17] daily charts are showing first lower-high .. will embolden some bears
[10:19] ES 1,042 .. 2nd push lower
[10:20] head&shoulders pattern is now confirmed ..
[10:20] measures about -9pts
[10:21] first divergence showing on 5min tick momentum .. first of the day
[10:22] noting 20min cycle in slam sequence
[10:25] stepping back a bit .. you start to see the 4 day head&shoulders developing .. ES_intraday__1017_hs.gif

[10:26] needs rebound to neckline to prove resistance is there
[10:29] ES 1,043.5 .. first signs of overlapping wave structure .. 20min timing is key, now
[10:31] 10:40 will be first 3*push sequence to play
[10:38] ES 1,042 .. key time bar here .. first bounce measure was 2.75pts .. 'b' watch, now
[10:44] Sept expiry produced a rather swift reaction
[10:46] QQQ, MDY, SPY, DIA .. 5/35 macd on daily is giving head's up .. a serious divergence could confirm .. MARKETS_daily__1017.gif

[10:50] ES 1,041.5 .. key level to watch for possibility of first higher low .. or look for wolfewave pattern to unfold (swipe of lod on divergence)
[10:53] NDX just broke 1,400
[10:54] ES 1,042 .. 3*push series .. ES_intraday__1017_3x.gif

[11:14] ES 1,040 .. 3rd push lower complete
[11:19] ES 1,040.75 .. clean "measure" .. measures about -9pts
[11:20] am always entertained by how a wolfe starts to howl @ major junctures
[11:28] [Dowtrader] Here come the Dippies
[11:28] nah.. the wolfepack
[11:29] ES 1,042.5 .. +2.75 bounce
[11:29] seems 2 days of "think 4" is now being replaced by "think 2.75"
[11:36] [TheLASCONE] Voodoo you Rock .. http://www.solarviews.com/raw/moon/boulder.gif
[11:37] looks like a head&shoulders on that rock ;)
[11:42] ES 1,041.5 .. confirming the 2.75pt measuring stick going into consolidation mode
[11:49] bulls will start looking for something that resembles an inverse h&s
[11:57] ES 1,042 .. pm setup .. ES_intraday__1017_pm.gif

[11:58] can you see the a-b-c forming?
[11:59] think "vulnerable stops"
[12:00] ES 1,042 .. testing 5min/20ema as an intraday resistance level
[12:02] my elliott wave lesson .. all you have to know about it to profit:
[12:02] 5 waves up, 3 waves down .. impulse up, correction down
[12:02] in either case.. you get 3 waves .. that is KEY
[12:03] therefore .. if you take nothing away from all the gobbelty-gook theory about running flats, 3-3-5, fib retraces, impulse vs. correction, alphabet soup and funky counting rules ..
[12:04] find the 'b' wave or wave 2 ..
[12:04] any bull or bear will AWAYS give or allow the move to 'c' .. or the start of 3
[12:04] that is why the first higher-low .. and first lower-high are so important
[12:05] you're looking for the "gimme" c wave .. or 3 to unfold
[12:05] in pattern trading .. that is how you actually trade a head&shoulders setup
[12:06] you trade the shoulder with the tightest risk contol possible, not the neckline break or impulse action (those are just confirms)
[12:06] same thing can be said about double top and double bottom trading
[12:07] ES 1,040 .. lod retest
[12:07] key level .. divergence watch for lower prices / higher oscillator game
[12:08] tick -564
[12:08] eye is on 1,038.5 as lower end of descending channel
[12:09] larger 60min push
[12:10] 3rd in series .. 10am started.. every hour, on the hour
[12:15] toughest spot in the book here .. ES_intraday__1017_ww.gif

[12:19] ES 1,040.75 .. Raschke also grabbed the notion of "think 2.75pts" .. SP_intraday__1017_lbr.gif

[12:20] she is the one to credit for watching "grail" /20ema .. on all timeframes .. it just happens to correspond to default Bollinger setting for midline
[12:21] ES 1,041.75 .. is another "think 2.75pts" juncture
[12:22] 5min/20ema "grail" at that signpost, too
[12:33] ES 1,041 .. descending channel .. lunch games .. lower stops were taken out .. ES_intraday__1017_ch.gif

[12:37] [chinawhite] voo - obviously all the pos divergencies on tick so far were not reversals. Is it yr reasoning for negating this formation as a bull flag?
[12:37] you are paying too much attention to the indicators .. and ignoring the price action
[12:39] china .. to have a bull flag .. you need a solid impuse UP ... followed by a consolidation
[12:39] fwiw .. it seems like the impulses have been exactly the opposite
[12:40] let's see .. 10 down
[12:40] and only meager 2.75pt bounces
[12:40] you would look for a bear flag .. not a bull one
[12:41] yesterday was "inside"
[12:41] today .. range is broken to downside
[12:42] gaming these tiny micro-bounces .. is only for 15min players .. pure channel surfing
[12:43] pattern in play for me is the cyan target line
[12:44] lunch time .. tends to be "vulnerable stops" game
[12:47] china - all wolfewave patterns on charts tend to be designated with cyan target lines for the wave 1->4 projection
[12:50] ES 1,041.25 .. upper channel bounds resist .. small 2*push higher showing .. overlapping structure (not very strong)
[12:50] final AM tick series timeslot ... will be 1:10pm
[12:51] showing divergence on tick momentum
[12:52] eye on any completion of 3*push higher sequence into key time pivot
[12:55] [tradinoncofe] voodoo...on three push lower today...i was tempted to count push at 10:04 as number 1...obviously wrong. What would have tipped me off that that was not #1.
[12:57] toc - because it was "stairstepping"
[12:57] that is .. for you to be able to nail the setup .. the projection line of 1-3->5 .. must be very clear and achievable
[12:58] if you have a strong impulse .. any spike low (e.g. 10:05am) .. is immediately turned into resistance on bounce test
[12:59] to nail a 3*push reversal .. the waves .. must -clearly- overlap .. and you should start to see some type of rhythm to be established (e.g. "think 2.75pts")
[13:00] 3*push higher completed
[13:11] ES 1,042 .. 1:10 .. key time pivot move .. neutral tick .. this timeslot is what produced the slam series
[13:16] too many folks treat maxpain like a target .. that is not very smart
[13:18] ES 1,040.25 .. could be bear flag confirm on 5min .. retrace to descending channel trendline, here
[13:18] a retest move
[13:29] ES 1,040.25 .. starting to confirm bear flag on 5min chart
[13:29] 1,039.75 .. is last place for bulls to game a right shoulder
[13:35] ES 1,039.25 .. pattern-wise .. "between a rock and a hard place" .. ES_intraday__1017_pm2.gif

[13:35] tick -591 doink
[13:36] ES 1,039 .. can be considered a natural neckline in the 4-day pattern setup
[13:37] 13 handle range
[13:39] 1:30 .. tick turn signal blinking (needs confirm)
[13:43] some ugly-as-sin negative divergences on daily charts starting to show
[13:48] tick +512 bounce
[13:49] tick momentum shifting into turn lane .. dunno if it is just a student driver .. ES 1,040.75 is 5min/20ema "grail"
[13:56] ES .. eye remains on 1,040.75 as "grail" 5min/20ema resist
[13:57] a bounce to 1,041.25 .. would produce "think 2.75pts" response
[14:03] 2pm signal watch
[14:07] 2:10 .. should be key timing stick .. using 65min intervals
[14:10] no edge here
[14:14] ES 1,040.5 .. setup for close .. ES_intraday__1017_close.gif

[14:14] dunno if 1,041.25 will get tagged or not
[14:16] tick -218
[14:19] move to tage 1,038 would be 'ideal'
[14:20] ES 1,037.25 .. crucial level .. lower end of descending channel
[14:20] tick -623
[14:21] same channel bounds that setup earlier wolfewave series .. need to be patient into this slam
[14:22] need to watch 1,039 into bounce .. could confirm as multi-day neckline
[14:23] ES 1,037.75 .. ww3 .. ES_intraday__1017_ww3.gif

[14:25] toughest trade of the day, here
[14:37] tick momentuum just registered first positive divergence in this slam series (2:10 timing)
[14:45] ES 1,038 .. first positive divergence on 5min basis .. lower prices, higher low in 5/35 macd (price-based, not tick)
[14:48] looking for 3*push lower to compete, soon
[14:49] ES 1,037.75 .. 2.75pts max on mind .. 1,039 will be level to prove as resistance .. 5min/20ema there
[14:55] very weak here
[14:56] tick -553
[14:56] guess Oct 19 gets to prove itself
[14:58] ES 1,036.5 .. smaller 3*push series
[15:00] tick -730 .. lod retest
[15:09] basically .. pattterns happen within patterns .. within patterns ..
[15:10] if you stop looking at the trees and pull back to larger timeframe .. you can see the forest
[15:10] ES_intraday__1017_wwt.gif

[15:10] perhaps that is the reason for constantly looking for head&shoulders .. bear flags .. and resistance
[15:11] it is the the -context- of the larger pattern
[15:11] note the 1-3-5 count
[15:11] that produced a "HEAD's UP"
[15:11] that signal was on the radar .. within 20minutes .. of the 10/15 open
[15:11] pattern-trading-gartley-head-and-shoulders.htm
[15:12] see second picture
[15:12] that sets the context of larger pattern
[15:12] and what to watch for on smaller timescales
[15:13] break of 8-day rising channel.. was just the 'confirm' yesterday
[15:14] if you bother to listen in ayem .. [10:25] stepping back a bit .. you start to see the 4 day head&shoulders developing .. ES_intraday__1017_hs.gif
[15:21] tick +880 .. hod
[15:25] ES 1,038 .. 5min/20ema "grail"
[15:26] tick momo signalling again
[15:26] "think 2.75pts"
[15:37] ES 1,037 .. final update .. ES_intraday__1017.gif

[15:37] all patterns on intraday basis have been satisfied (for week)
[15:38] only one left open was the "opening range reversal" from Monday's gap up silliness
[15:38] was filled at 1,036.25
[16:01] good nite, all
[16:03] will put today's log into last of day series
[16:03] no more handholding after this .. y'all can go fishing
[16:03] been in back of mind to do something like this
[16:04] discussion about what an a-b-c was kinda got it started
[16:04] pattern trading works
[16:04] it is a matter of knowing where the best risk control is
[16:05] dunno .. last couple days is just to give examples of how mechanics work in realtime
[16:06] Raschke does best job of that .. I can only hope to be as good as her some day
[16:06] very smart cookie
[16:06] [tradinoncofe] did you ever get private coaching from her?
[16:06] nope .. spend months reading her book and puting on "StreetSmarts" goggles
[16:07] her charts provide more information than you could possibly imagine
[16:07] http://lbrgroup.com/

[16:07] Raschke used to give "free days"
[16:07] back in 2002
[16:07] and before that
[16:07] you can learn soo much
[16:08] I have old logs .. and have studied them extensively .. from when it was free
[16:09] you should visit .. and do the 3-day trial
[16:09] that is far better
[16:09] learn from a master
[16:09] and make that the basis for your study
[16:09] need to experience it in realtime
[16:11] GET READY...1-2 days...market is poised!
[16:12] see her website
[16:13] good nite.. peace to all

 

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